US Elections 2020

For the uninitiated, during 2016 US elections, I had predicted Trump win and I also predicted 305 electoral college votes for him. He ended up winning 306 electoral college votes (but the actual electoral college voters gave him 304). So my prediction was spot on. I don’t know of anyone who predicted electoral college votes so precisely.

So, for 2020, I predict a Trump win. There will be landslide wins state-wise and only in 2 or 3 States it will be close. So, that way, it will be an election where the winner will easily be called, contrary to popular belief.

Biden will win the popular vote with more margin than last time. Trump will win Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Texas, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina. Nevada will be a surprise win for Trump. Pennsylvania – very tough to predict. There is a good chance Biden will win PA. Trump’s electoral college vote will be around 292. If PA flips to Trump, he will have 312. Minnesota (10) can take him past 320 if luck favours him. So, basically, it will be a landslide win for Trump.

I am publishing this post at 9 PM India time.

I haven’t seen Buddha

I have seen Dhoni meditating in the Colosseum of cricket taking down the best of limited overs internationals. He wasn’t just a finisher or a strategist. He was a musician who knew the depths of silence. There definitely was a tactician in him who knew how to hold a pause button on time and marshal his faculties and resources when nerves were ready to race and get ahead of the best of the best.

The equanimity with which he seized moments from his well deserving competitors while maintaining a calm, grim demeanor unfazed by the enormity of the situation showed to the world the importance of maintaining restraint while delivering defeat to the opponent.

He was not clinical in his approach, a word most commentators use fast and loose nowadays. He was methodical, creative, pragmatic, deceptive, gracious, aggressive, hopeful, courageous with a crystal clear view of the end goal.

Watching him was watching ways to master mind and its frailties. He was only human when he hoped to carry the burden of the nation on his shoulders despite his declining form. So effectively did he do that, that only a moment of sheer brilliance caught him on the other side of the crease which now happens to be his last moment as an international cricketer.

It is only apt that his career ended with a runout. Run he did until the last moment and he did carry the hopes until that moment. Only he knows that his methods have been the same when he turned similar moments in the past to victories. Like he won tournaments for the country with some least known bowlers, he knew dip in his form had nothing to do with betting on himself to do the job for India. Because his real art was in making the best use of what he had.

Bye bye 2015

Sensation was a daily routine this whole year
As media captured every emotion and every single tear
Parliament witnessed yet another noisy washout
San Bernardino saw a highly tragic shootout
Trump declared Hillary ‘schlonged’ tickling linguists
Tharoor’s attempt at LGBT rights was foiled by sexists
Chennai had spice with Amma food packets
National Herald, DDCA were reported corruption rackets
Modi flew all over taking pit stop at Lahore
Right wingers had a field day with bans galore
Pichai shone as Google rolled up to Alphabet
Europe froze through Paris shootings and subsequent terror threat
Cricket World cup went once again to Australia
Islamophobia was a wrong reaction to ISISmania
As India was just hoping to see a re-entry of Maggi
Noodle business attracted every self-proclaimed yogi
Net neutrality gave a tough fight to Free Basics
Media discussed India’s tolerance to Christians, Muslims and Sikhs
Driverless car was declared the merciless killer
The Force awakened as world witnessed another thriller
As 2016 promises positive changes to life
Hope world comes out of misery and strife

Is AAP actually brainy? AND the politics of ‘re-election burden’?

Aam Aadmi Party maybe made of real Aam Aadmi’s but definitely not brainless ones. They probably have not got the experience of governance, but the thinktank of AAP definitely has got some corporate thinkers among its thinktank. AAP definitely showed its prowess in executing strategy by winning 28 out of 70 seats in Delhi Assembly which is no mean achievement for a first timer. Arvind Kejriwal’s strong prediction that BJP / Congress will form a deal OR horse trading would start initially put BJP on the backfoot. Renunciation of power became the newly accepted virtue and BJP wanted to be the leader on that one. You can say AAP never intended this to happen, but BJP trying to outsmart AAP was forced into not forming a government. Also, BJP and Congress went on the offensive trying to corner AAP on the question of ‘responsibility to form a government’ as Arvind Kejriwal strongly pronounced they will not form an alliance with maligned parties. Congress took an extra-offensive step by sending a support letter to the Governor. Now,what happened after that is history. There are 2 versions.

Version 1: AAP would have actually struck a backstage deal with Congress and to make its stand moral, went for people’s referendum and stuck to blaming Congress while convincing Congress to actually support them while taking people’s wrath on Congress through AAP’s statements against Congress as well as possible inquiries into Congress’ corruption. This is the version claimed by BJP, which if is true, I will declare myself a true fan of AAP. Because this is a major strategic move kept very well hidden behind the scenes while making AAP the dominant partner eventhough they do not have much money to offer their supposed secret allies in Congress. This version is far-fetched by any account of imagination, however the most believed by some people mostly BJP fans. AAP can easily quell this by launching offensive against Congress and doing everything that would force Congress to withdraw their support to AAP. Congress will fall in their own trap as they would be seen immoral and the cause for ‘re-election burden’ on Delhi people.

Version 2: What AAP claims. AAP has no interest in Congress support. But doesn’t see it a wise decision to backoff and put ‘re-election burden’ on Delhi people. It would be a moral burden on Congress to keep supporting AAP while AAP has to keep its high standards to not give an impression that Congress has a legitimate reason to withdraw support. AAP might have taken this situation as a ‘do or die’ and forced them to accept the challenge although initially they were a little afraid of taking charge. This version again makes AAP brainy. While their original strong stance put the major parties on backfoot and reverse offensive, they had the brains to re-consider their decision given their cards have changed the gameplay of major parties. Also, to quell the thoughts they might be hand-in-hand with Congress, they went for numbers and backed by numbers of popular votes, announced their decision. They did some bad to themselves which definitely they are aware of, and they know the only way to put an end to that thought is performance and probably they got the courage to go all out on performance.

Amongst all this nonsense, Rahul Gandhi’s thinking is a bit interesting. He has definitely shown a lot of immaturity in timing and content of his statements, but has understood the importance of trying to strike a chord with the sentiments of ‘Aam Aadmi’. He distanced himself from the current Government and its decisions. The current Government cannot make pompous statements on curtailing of corruption and hence Rahul Gandhi is well placed to act as the innocent new entry to the stained old party who has all noble intentions of cleansing it from the dirt accumulated. His current standing may not help Congress in 2014 elections, but probably is much needed to revive the image of Congress from a power hungry corrupt authoritarian to a revived old party all set to hug the Aam Aadmi era. I am pretty sure, RG is the main guy behind Congress’ support for AAP. It is pretty evident that he does not like the thinking of some old timers in the party. He is very much focussed on reviving the party which is probably what the Congress Party needs urgently although I doubt if he will be good at executing this.

BJP on the other hand knows they are already forming the government in 2014 and hence do not want to change its philosophy drastically (happy with I-hate-Congress-and-I-am-good-at-administration image). They know they had anti-secular image and hence are playing cards very subtly on this front giving very less room for the ‘secular forces’ making it their full time job to protect secularism.

My prediction for 2014 Lok Sabha election: BJP: 300+, Cong: 70, AAP: 30.. All others: 125-150. For BJP, the main task is to see if it can actually gobble up two-thirds majority which I feel it can if it gets good allies.

Manavi aalakincharadate

manasaa manavi aalakincharadate
hridayam karigi kadali pongipoyene
samayam gunde sadiki nilachi vundate
gaayam kshanamulone maayamainade

rudhiram kanamulanni nindi pongene
adharam amruthamulo munigi poyene
manasaa manavi aalakincharadate
hridayam karigi kadali pongipoyene

Trip to Lonavala

Hi,

I am starting to appreciate the beauty of 3g. When we had to arrange for an Innova for our trip to Lonavala, I quickly browsed on Google on my new Nokia E5 and got a number, clicked on it to make a quick call and within minutes we had our trip organized. Btw, I am typing this from my mobile.

Anyways, the trip was great! The sceneries were picturesque, valleys breathtaking and weather awesome. There were too many cars lined up with umpteens of tourists, so we literally spent the entire time in the car. The one spot where we got down was absolutely marvelous. Walking in clouds was what we did, literally! If only traffic was less, we could have enjoyed the trip better. Back to the busy Mumbai life now. If only I could make my workplace as pleasant! Sigh…!

Movie Review: Harry Potter and Deathly Hallows Part 2

Although this movie was liked by many, I will rate it 3 out of 5. It was ok but not the fitting finale one would expect especially one who has read the book would expect. The movie starts off good – the gringotts incident is well captured BUT, nowhere it is mentioned that the cup that is found by them in Gringotts is Hufflepuff’s cup. The tricks Voldemort plays to snatch the cup away from a middle aged lady may not be that relevant but somewhere a mention of the credentials of the cup should have been made. Hufflepuff deserves the mention particularly when someone actually destroys it with a basilisk fang.

From there on, the movie is shot as expected although in the book, Harry’s coming back to Hogwarts is treated much better by everyone. Towards the end there should have been some narration which would have covered Harry’s emotions having seen the deaths of many of his fellowmen.

But the deathblow was the climax. No, not a deathblow as in – High impact nerve-wracking kind. It is a deathblow to the reader of Harry Potter series. Come on, the book captured the climax scene better. The climax scene is supposed to happen when Hogwarts people and death eaters surround Voldemort and Harry. Neville should have killed Nagini there itself (not his heroic actions to save Hermione and Ron) and Harry should have explained the allegiance of Elder wand to Voldemort before casting the curse ‘Avada Kedavra’. To me that spell was important because it explains the curse can be used by the hero as well :-)!

Last but not the least, when the time moves forward by 19 years, make up should have been taken care of better. It was a laughing stock among the audience.

Anyways, the film is still watchable purely because of the original story – no points to the movie script writer and director.

Streets of memories

Saw myself in the mirror
life rewound
moments flickered in my eyes
very nice

when I never repented past
moved very fast
moment by moment
as they did last

Time ran a run of ignorance
bliss were moments
and I took a halt
looked behind

beauty filled moments
gushed through nerves
as time stood still
lips curved

smile of contentment
bathed my heart
absolved I was
from sins of past

A song on Ricky

Original song lyrics are at http://www.lyricsfreak.com/d/dire+straits/romeo+juliet_20040674.html You would love it if you know the tune as well. It’s a beautiful song by Dire Strait btw.

A dumbstruck Ricky cries aloud at Yuvraj
Laying Australians low with a stupid team that he chose
Finds a convenient floodlight steps out of the pitch
Says something like ‘I am from the land of the biggest b^*ch’

Gayle says hey it’s Ricky you nearly gimme a heart attack
Ricky’s at the check-in counter Gayle says am at Security check
You shouldn’t cry around here cursing at Indians like that
Anyway what you gonna do about it?

Gayle the pitch was tampered from the start
And I bet the umpire was rewarded for his part
And I hate the Yuvi’s bat
They r gonna realise it was just that the cup was fixed Chris Gayle!

We both are from different teams they both were teams of shame
Both dirty both mean yes and the captains were just the same
And I dreamed the world cup again and it proved to be so unreal
How can you look at me as if I was a school boy who lost a game?

Where they chant Sachin’s name and enjoy Yuvi’s game
they even loved the Irish and the Kenyan school boys the same
They booed me everyday they booed my sh&* out of me
Now they just say Oh Ricky yeah you know he used to have a bat with him

Gayle when I batted they used to cry
My shots reached the stars above the ball would always fly
There’s a place for us you know the commentary box
When r they gonna realise it was just that we grew so old Chris Gayle!!

I can’t do the commentary like they talk on TV
And I can’t do a commercial the way it’s meant to be
I can’t do everything but I’d do anything for you
I can’t do anything except carry luggage for you

And all I do is miss my bat and the way it used to hit
All I do is leave the ball and look at the broken wicket
All I do is criticize the giants of IPL
Gayle I’d do umpiring with you any time

Gayle when I batted they used to cry
My shots reached the stars above the ball would always fly
There’s a place for us you know the commentary box
When r they gonna realise it was just that we grew so old Chris Gayle!!

A dumbstruck Ricky cries aloud at Yuvraj
Laying Australians low with a stupid team that he chose
Finds a convenient floodlight steps out of the pitch
Says something like ‘I am from the land of the biggest b^*ch’

The smile of the self

I tried to swim
through the blue oceans of consciousness
flapping my mind’s fins
to steer away the troubled watery thoughts.

The identity of my mind
bound by the walls of duality
refused to diffuse
through the airs of awareness all around.

My heart held tight
to the airy thoughts of self
and nailed them to the memory’s walls
settling as a crease on my forehead.

As the vanity of the ego saw itself
the walls submerged into the waters
the fluids vanished in thin air
the past, present and future
lacked distinction,
as stillness revealed itself
basking in the silence of centuries.

The velvety beats of the heart
dissolved in the sweetness of the experience
ripples of chill crept under the skin
and the divine glow curved the lips
to reveal the smile of the self.